The country is not ‘split’ or ‘polarized’ over abortion. It’s not a ‘controversial’ issue. Despite myths to the contrary, Americans overwhelmingly want abortion to be legal and have for decades. Since Roe was overturned, that support—along with voters’ ire over bans—has only grown.

But even the polls reporting that massive and growing support are likely underestimating just how popular abortion rights are. New research from PerryUndem not only found that Americans increasingly support abortion throughout pregnancy—but that major polling groups are missing out on that vital shift by asking outdated and oversimplified questions.

If you’ve been reading Abortion, Every Day for a while, you know this is something I harp on often: I’m tired of pollsters adopting a Republican framework, asking voters when abortion should be regulated rather than if it should be. They ignore the possibility that American’s don’t want government involvement at all.

Because when voters are asked if they think abortion should be regulated by the government or a decision made between a doctor and patient, more than 80% choose the latter. That means the vast majority of Americans don’t want abortion legislated at all.

Why, then, do numbers from polling powerhouses like Gallup not reflect as much? While their most recent data found 69% of voters want abortion legal in the first trimester, for example, only 37% and 22% want it to be legal in the second and third trimesters, respectively. If Americans don’t want abortion regulated by the government, why would so many answer this way?

PerryUndem’s report posits that the issue is that focus on trimesters, a remnant of Roe v. Wade:

“With that framework no longer applicable, the questions are becoming outdated. More importantly, these questions risk an oversimplification of opinion at best, and at worst, provide a misleading snapshot.”

And so the folks at PerryUndem decided to go deeper. Like Gallup, when they asked voters whether abortion should be legal in certain trimesters, 71% said it should be illegal in the third trimester. But unlike Gallup, PerryUndem didn’t stop there.

They zeroed in on voters who said abortion should be regulated in the third trimester, asking that group specifically a series of in-depth follow up questions. Those responses reveal a much more nuanced picture of Americans’ beliefs:

• When asked whether abortion should be regulated by law or left between a patient and doctor, 40% said it should not be regulated by law.

• 40% said that abortion should be available throughout pregnancy because of complex circumstances.

• 78% agreed there are circumstances when someone might need an abortion later in pregnancy, and 80% agreed laws can’t account for every situation where an abortion is needed.

• 58% agreed that people should be able to make their own decisions on abortion throughout a pregnancy, without government interference.

• When asked about who should make a decision about abortion, most said doctors or medical professionals; only 16% reported that the state legislature or a state Supreme Court should have a say.

Taking all of those answers into account, PerryUndem estimates that the number of Americans who want abortion to be legal throughout pregnancy may actually be closer to 56%—a clear majority. This aligns with what we’ve seen from other polls that ask if the government should have a say rather than when. It also makes sense alongside the broader opinion shift among Americans on abortion rights.

After all, even Gallup’s own numbers, while likely undercounted, show an increase in support for abortion throughout pregnancy. While just 22% of voters want abortion legal in the third trimester, that number is nearly ten points higher than it was in 2018. There was a similar jump in support for abortion in the second trimester.

In other words, Americans increasingly understand that pregnancy is too complicated to legislate.

Tresa Undem of PerryUndem tells me that while she started to notice that shift some years ago, there was a specific change after Dobbs. When the horror stories started pouring out of anti-choice states, voters began to understand that bans wouldn’t just impact those who wanted to end their pregnancies—but even those with wanted pregnancies who became ill. “It became a health and safety issue,” she says.

Undem also tells me she’s noticed voters talking more about politicians’ ignorance around women’s bodies. “What I hear now and haven’t head before is how people articulate that politicians don’t have medical expertise,” she says.

What does all of this mean for us? A lot. To start, it’s yet another strong indication that pro-choice politicians should stop dancing around abortion throughout pregnancy and go on offense.

Defensive messaging makes Democrats look like they have something to hide. Instead they should hit back, pointing out how many of the post-Roe horror stories have come from women beyond their second trimester. Every day we see proof that abortion throughout pregnancy is necessary—why ignore it?

When Republicans talk about abortion ‘up until birth’, Democrats should drop the quick assurances that we’re just ‘restoring Roe’ and respond with these questions instead: Who are you talking about? Are you talking about Kate Cox? Are you talking about Amanda Zurawski? Tell me about the women you’re creating these laws for.

Republicans are stoking imaginary bogeymen while we’re defending real people; we can’t let voters forget that.

In addition to the small fact that it’s the right thing to do, it’s also clear from the PerryUndem report that talking about abortion throughout pregnancy doesn’t meaningfully change voter support:

There’s also a clear messaging opportunity to remind Americans that supporting abortion throughout pregnancy is less about “allowing third trimester abortions” than it is ending government interference in pregnancy. That’s meaningful to Americans: A poll commissioned by Planned Parenthood found that the messages resonating most with voters are those emphasizing that medical decisions should be made by patients and doctors, not politicians, and those highlighting how wholly unqualified politicians are to have a say.

Finally, we need more polls like this one—research that goes beyond superficial questions to get at what Americans truly believe about abortion. We’re in a horrible, unprecedented moment that requires the most comprehensive information possible. And we need that information to fight for something better than ‘restoration’: freedom.

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